Poland Hit by Frost: Cherry Production Down 30% in 2025/26

The cherry harvest in Poland marks the worst result in recent years: out-of-season frost and adverse weather conditions have compromised early varieties and drastically reduced market availability.

Production at historic lows

For the 2025/26 season, the total cherry production in Poland is estimated at just 115,000 tons, marking a 30% drop compared to 2024 and even more than 50% below the average of the past six years.

The main factor was the repeated frost between April and May, which severely affected early-ripening varieties.

The sour cherry production, accounting for about 70% of the total, is expected to fall to 80,000 tons, while sweet cherries will decrease to 35,000 tons.

Already in 2024, production had experienced a 32% drop compared to 2023, confirming an increasingly unfavorable weather trend.

Frost, low rainfall and reduced pollination

The climatic conditions dealt a severe blow to the entire sector: from mid-March to May, there were numerous episodes of late frost, causing extensive damage to flowers and buds.

In some areas, losses reached up to 90%.

The persistent cold and low rainfall in May also compromised fruit setting, with a drastic decline in pollinator activity.

Stable acreage, but conflicting data

Despite climatic adversities, the area cultivated with cherry trees remains stable around 34,500 hectares, thanks also to new investments, especially in sour cherries, which are gradually replacing apples and currants.

However, there are significant discrepancies between estimates from the Polish government and European agencies: for 2024, for example, figures range from 24,900 to 18,058 hectares.

Consumption down, stocks depleted

About 75% of production is destined for juice processing or NFC concentrates, while another 20% is used for freezing, mainly for export.

In May 2025, Polish processors reported a total lack of frozen stocks, an alarming signal ahead of the new season.

Sweet cherry consumption is expected to decrease, due to limited supply and the consequent price increase.

Also affecting the system are the labor shortage and high energy costs, pushing toward greater mechanization, though at the expense of yields and tree longevity.

Imports rising, exports struggling

In 2024/25, fresh fruit exports saw a sharp decline: -21% for sour cherries (2,693 tons), with Germany as the main destination (74%), and -25% for sweet cherries (599 tons), mostly exported to Lithuania, Germany and the United Kingdom.

Due to the production drop, imports have risen significantly: +1,389% for sour cherries (3,253 tons) from countries like Hungary, Moldova and Serbia; +31% for sweet cherries (8,184 tons), driven by early demand.

The main foreign suppliers were Turkey, Germany, Greece and Bulgaria.

Outlook: high tension on European markets

With such low domestic availability, Polish processors and exporters will compete for the few cherries available.

Production difficulties in other major players — such as Hungary, Serbia and Turkey — will make the overall supply even tighter.

High export prices could incentivize Polish producers to sell abroad, but logistical and preparation costs remain a major constraint.

Meanwhile, climate instability, high labor costs, and import competition threaten the sustainability of small farms.

Source text and image: commodity-board.com

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