Returns from exports were dismal last season. A trend that many suspected but few were ready to face: cherry supply in China was overwhelming and drove prices to historic lows. Who were the hardest hit? Who managed to weather the storm?
How can this situation be managed in the coming years, as production continues to grow? In the following pages, we share expert consultants’ proposals to ensure this crop remains a profitable business opportunity.
All signs indicate that the cherry export landscape is changing. How should this new reality be faced? Redagrícola interviewed seven key industry consultants to gather their views: Jorge Astudillo, Jordi Casas, Marcelo Correa, Raimundo Cuevas, Christian Gallegos, Walter Masman, and Sebastián Navarro.
At the time of the interviews, the exact extent of the return drop for growers was still unknown, but the settlements received so far already indicated a significant decline.
“Even though we need to wait for the final figures, the national average will likely be below 2 dollars (around €1.85) per kilo,” estimated Jordi Casas. “The price drop in China was around 60%,” added Christian Gallegos. All agreed on the main cause:
“It’s economics 101: supply and demand,” said Marcelo Correa. “Going from 65 million boxes before Chinese New Year (February 12, 2024) to about 100–110 million before January 29, 2025, meant an extra 40 million boxes to sell in two fewer weeks. The market became saturated.”
“I was in China from January 14 to 24,” said Jordi Casas. “I toured several cities, visited over 10 importers, negotiated in markets: there were cherries everywhere, in staggering quantities.”
Walter Masman does the math to debunk the myth of the infinite market: “This year, 125 million 5-kg boxes were shipped; divided by China’s 1.2 billion population, per capita consumption would be 0.5 kg. Can all Chinese consumers afford that? We know large segments of the population still have very low incomes.”
The slowing economic growth in China also affected demand: people are less inclined to buy an expensive product like cherries, typically associated with holidays and gift-giving.
There was talk of fake news alleging damage caused by Chilean cherries, of poor-quality shipments, and even a cultural shift among younger generations, moving away from family meals and gift-giving traditions.
Early cherry producers were the least affected by the new situation.
“Based on what happened,” noted Walter Masman, “results were generally positive. For those who harvested before roughly November 25, it was still a great business. The very few who sold in October likely got over $12/kg (about €11.1/kg). Santina harvested in weeks 45 or 46 sold for $5–6/kg (around €4.6–5.5/kg).”
Raimundo Cuevas, of Abud y Cía., observed returns around $3–3.5/kg (€2.8–3.2/kg) for growers who harvested good-quality fruit in early December.
“Of course, that’s below expectations, but it still generates a profit of $10,000–15,000/ha (€9,250–13,875/ha), which is positive. It’s also a sign: in one of the worst price years, cherries remain a crop worth investing in.”
Cuevas also includes high-value varieties like Rainier and Kordia among the positives, which helped offset losses where they were present.
Masman mentions a group of producers from the Panguipulli area who, along with their exporter, deliberately targeted markets other than China, particularly the United States. This market ensured returns between $2.5 and $3/kg (€2.3–2.8/kg) for quality fruit, in a period of low supply and limited volumes.
“Who’s in a better position?” asks Sebastián Navarro. “Primarily the established exporters with strong brands, quality labels, and market recognition, who were able to select and differentiate their fruit. Among the growers who met the quality needed to pack under those labels, several will end the season with a positive balance.”
According to Raimundo Cuevas, difficulties start south of San Fernando, depending greatly on fruit quality and variety: “Those with late Lapins or Santina, Sweetheart, or older varieties like Bing are in serious trouble, with returns likely below production costs.”
“As harvests approached mid-December,” confirms Walter Masman, “prices collapsed. I saw Lapins sold between January 10 and 15, size 2J, for $1.5/kg (€1.4/kg); size 3J went for $2–2.2/kg (€1.85–2/kg). Below Jumbo size, returns were already turning negative. I suspect the Talca to Angol region will be in serious difficulty.”
Jordi Casas: "For everything harvested after December 1, returns will likely be less than half compared to last year. This puts many companies in the red, some just breaking even. Cherries will become an average business, like other crops, with greater risk than in the past."
The most at-risk producers are those who grow only cherries and will see income below per-hectare costs, especially small and medium farms. Some will exit the industry due to financial difficulties, lack of varieties that reach profitable export sizes, or low productivity, explains Marcelo Correa.
"If you ship undersized, low-sugar, or soft fruit, there’s little chance of success, even early in the season," says Masman. "With oversupply, everything is scrutinized under a microscope," Correa concludes.
The high price of cherries in China is linked to the tradition of giving them as luxury gifts during Chinese New Year.
Image 1. The high price in China is due to the custom of giving cherries as prestigious New Year gifts.
Raimundo Cuevas: "More than an industry crisis, this is a market correction we knew would come. It’s not the time to uproot in panic. Decisions must be made with a cool head. Three or four seasons ago, Lapins was written off; then it was Regina’s turn. People made rash moves like uprooting new orchards or grafting to Santina… and the next year, Regina had the best returns. Experienced growers know a bad season doesn’t define a trend. This is a sector full of surprises. Stay calm—especially if you're producing good fruit."
Still, this may be a good year to remove chronically problematic orchards. But what criteria should guide such a drastic decision?
Christian Gallegos:
"My advice: know your costs and productivity well. An orchard producing 7,000 kg/ha is no longer viable. It was when prices were $5 (approx. €4.6), but not at $2.5 (approx. €2.3). Every farm has less productive blocks—due to soil issues, pests, or irrigation limits. In Osorno, for example, some plots have 40% of trees missing. Replacing them is futile: because of allelopathy and competition for nutrients, light, and water, new trees never reach full potential. With only 60% of trees, your cap is 6,000–7,000 kg/ha. Even with miracles, you won’t hit 10,000 kg/ha with 85% exportable and $2.5 returns. It should be removed. At $5/kg you could keep it in ICU… but now it’s too costly."
Gallegos estimates that in the future, prices will stabilize around $3/kg (€2.8/kg) on average. An orchard yielding 10,000 kg/ha with 80% exportable fruit would bring $24,000/ha (€22,200/ha) in returns, against costs of about $20,000 (€18,500). Cherries would then be a $4,000–5,000/ha (€3,700–4,600/ha) business—profitable, but not highly rewarding considering yearly investments exceed $20,000.
Jordi Casas:
"In Chile we have skilled growers who know their numbers. Most are aware of which plots yield under 10,000 kg/ha or which varieties have no improvement potential and should be removed."
Currently, Large (L), Extra Large (XL) and even some Jumbo sizes are yielding negative returns, says Jordi Casas. Packers still charge per kilo processed, adds Sebastián Navarro: “Producers must understand this if they want to keep growing a fruit that may result in losses.”
Marcelo Correa suggests stopping the packing of L and XL sizes from December 1 onward. According to Casas, even some J sizes might be excluded during the peak season.
“L and XL cherries should go to the local market. They’re not for export—period,” states Christian Gallegos, citing the Chilean blueberry industry’s decision years ago to stop exporting fruit under 12 mm.
This approach could remove 15–20% of national supply, estimate Correa, Casas, and Gallegos. Forecasts for 2025/26 suggest export volumes similar to last season—about 125 million boxes—but with larger average sizes.
Correa supports the idea of some exporters packing only Jumbo sizes at peak season and predicts future quotas of Jumbos per grower. Jorge Astudillo cites an example from Ovalle: Brooks 2J cherries sold for $5.5/kg (approx. €5.1), and 4J for $14/kg (approx. €12.9).
Christian Gallegos: “This year XL cherries fetched about 30 cents/kg (€0.28), but cost at least $1.5 (€1.38) to produce. That’s a loss of more than $1/kg.”
Starting with the variety, Walter Masman explains that the genetics of Santina or Royal Dawn limit the ability to reach larger sizes. “If you're producing 15,000 kg/ha, it’s unlikely you’ll get fruit above 28 mm.”
Correa recommends abandoning the idea of 20,000 kg/ha for Lapins and suggests aiming for a more realistic 15,000–18,000 kg/ha to obtain 2J or larger sizes, while improving dry matter content and shelf-life.
“The market clearly says it’s more profitable to reach sizes above 28 mm,” states Correa, and to achieve that, targeted agronomic work is necessary. Each grower must know their orchard and strike the right balance between yield and size.
Load adjustment is crucial and begins with pruning. Then, depending on fruit set, comes bud thinning and early fruit thinning, Masman explains. More fruit per shoot or linear meter means smaller sizes, adds Astudillo.
Raimundo Cuevas advises growers to analyze their size distribution curves to improve them, so that load adjustment isn't just based on intuition. Jordi Casas suggests comparing the highest and lowest yielding years to identify the true potential of each plot.
The so-called “Chinese thinning” has been justified over the last two or three seasons, says Sebastián Navarro: “Ideally, thinning should be done earlier, but if needed, go ahead. Even though it requires labor, it’s still less than what’s needed to harvest small fruit that won’t be packed or will be sold cheaply, resulting in losses.”
This year, Cuevas says, the risk of frost led many growers to leave an extra fruit load as a precaution. Since no frost occurred, fruit set was full, damaging fruit size and quality.
Cuevas recommends starting winter with a well-adjusted orchard, investing in frost control technology (such as covers), and aiming for slightly lower production with higher quality fruit, because overproduction kills profitability.
It all begins with load regulation, then follows through with irrigation, nutrition, satellite mapping, orchard uniformity, pest control, and stimulation strategies.
To achieve good sizes, one must begin between January and March with reserves accumulation in the tree, followed by irrigation management, growth regulators, and cultivation technologies.
Jordi Casas: “You must be extremely meticulous to achieve the best results.”
Of course, productivity should not be overlooked. Jorge Astudillo stresses that thinning, load, and size must also be managed in self-fertile varieties like Santina and Lapins.
For self-incompatible varieties, productivity is usually lower and the challenge is fruit set. It’s essential to synchronize pollinator and main varieties—like Brooks, Royal Dawn, and Rainier—to achieve 3 to 4 fruits per shoot.
To agronomic practices, one must add tech packages such as shade nets to control winter radiation and improve flowering and bud break. The relationship between yield and size isn’t linear, warns Jordi Casas.
A personalized approach is required, confirms Sebastián Navarro, who shares his own example: “My best plot produced 19,000 kg of Lapins focused on 3J size. There were no XL cherries. My Santina never exceeds 15 tons; with its 12 tons, I get a lot of XL. I’ll have to reduce. Everyone needs to understand their own reality.”
Although costs may vary, Christian Gallegos, based on real-world data, estimates a base cost of about $14,000/ha (approx. €12,950/ha), plus harvest costs around 50–55 cents/kg (€0.46–0.51/kg).
“If you produce 10,000 kg/ha, it’ll cost you $14,000 + $5,000 = $19,000/ha ($1.9/kg, about €17,600/ha or €1.75/kg). A producer with 20,000 kg/ha faces the same base $14,000 + $10,000 for harvest = $24,000 ($1.2/kg, about €22,200 or €1.11/kg).”
With these numbers, if returns are $1.5/kg (€1.38/kg), a 10,000 kg/ha producer loses about $4,000/ha (€3,700/ha).
Image 2. The people involved in harvesting are crucial and represent a key component in cherry production.
"The best way to cut costs is to achieve higher yield per hectare of target fruit."
Sebastián Navarro: "Production costs should not exceed $1.5 per kg (approx. €1.38), or, being generous, $1.8 (€1.66). Anyone spending more is using the wrong approach."
How can costs be reduced? The biggest expense is labor. Christian Gallegos, Walter Masman, and Marcelo Correa estimate it accounts for about 70% of total costs, with slight variations. In descending order, the main cost items are harvesting, thinning, and pruning, explains Masman.
Marcelo Correa: "That's why I promote trellised cherry cultivation," says Correa. "A worker can harvest 280 kg or more per day, compared to 180 kg/day with a central leader system." He also suggests stronger pruning and piecework pay, "but with excellent supervision: precision is key, using shears to improve size and, in some cases, applying 'Chinese thinning'."
Large growers can provide labor continuity with other crops and negotiate better harvest rates, observes Jordi Casas. If picker efficiency is low and many small or double fruits are left, the grower will end up paying for fruit that gets discarded—the worst-case scenario, warns Masman.
If harvesting is difficult, tree height must be adjusted to simplify the job. Efficient irrigation, stress-reducing practices, plant health, biostimulants, sun protection, nutrition, pruning, and load regulation all make the tree more efficient and help contain costs.
In general, consultants advise against cutting phytosanitary and nutritional programs if they are well designed. Food quality and safety standards demand it.
Some savings are possible, says Masman; perhaps by looking for more affordable alternatives validated by research, adds Casas, but the overall cost impact will be marginal.
Sebastián Navarro: "Anyone who padded their program with unnecessary treatments should remove them now," says Casas. “During the boom, I saw phytosanitary programs costing $4,000 to $5,000/ha; today they can be managed well with $2,000–3,000” (€1,850–2,775/ha), confirms Navarro.
Christian Gallegos: "When it comes to cutting costs, inputs are the least impactful area. You could compromise fruit quality, condition, or yield by skipping a synthetic cytokinin for sizing, a key fungicide, or a treatment to preserve firmness—losing up to 20% of your yield. That’s not smart saving."
For him, the key word is management: "I don't cut costs by removing products but by optimizing equipment use. If I'm spraying 1,500 L/ha when I only need 1,000 L/ha, I've already cut input costs by 30%, since dosage is per hectoliter."
Strategic investments can instead increase revenue: for example, plastic covers to advance the harvest and get the best prices, suggests Masman for early-zone growers.
Raimundo Cuevas: It’s not just about tightening the belt—sometimes introducing irrigation and nutrition technologies boosts productivity and quality.
According to Jorge Astudillo, in Ovalle one can't imagine a cherry orchard without shade nets. He adds that greenhouse or macrotunnel covers will become necessary as the central zone starts advancing harvests using these systems. “The north’s productive potential, due to latitude, must be matched by technology.”
While it's unlikely that the golden age prices in China will return, strategies can be designed to maintain profitability.
Nelson Gallardo, an agronomist active in the southern region, explains: "Chinese consumers used to pay high prices because cherries were a distinctive, exclusive gift. Now we’ve flooded the market. It's no longer a special present. Why should they keep paying so much?"
"We need to position cherries as a luxury good, not a commodity," says Marcelo Correa.
"We've done a great job. Now the market challenge is to go beyond what we’ve already built," says Walter Masman.
Raimundo Cuevas: "If we succeed, the business will endure: we’re not competing against other countries, but against ourselves."
Jorge Astudillo suggests a differentiation strategy for Ovalle cherries:
"Early fruit from other areas comes from greenhouses or tunnels and tends to be softer. Ours is crunchy and sweet. The exporter Teno Ovalle introduced a green box that is gaining recognition in China: it’s a bit lighter in color but very pleasing sensorially. When we’re the first to arrive, color standards are more flexible. The goal for those investing in Ovalle is to get the best prices at the start of the season, justifying the investment—whether from local or outside growers."
Jordi Casas raises the issue of mixing fruit of different origins and treatments in the same box, a problem that must be addressed by both producers and exporters.
Christian Gallegos: “All exporters have a ‘premium’ box and a ‘generic’ (category 2) one, with fruit that may have defects but still meets market standards. They inform the grower of the percentage packed as premium and as category 2. But almost none specify differentiated returns. They pool everything and say: Regina, week 52, Jumbo size: $3/kg (€2.77/kg). There’s no incentive to produce better fruit. So growers prefer to pack 90% as category 2 rather than make the effort to get 75% as premium. The market flattens downward: it penalizes the best and rewards the worst. This can’t continue.”
His proposal:
“Settle payments by variety, week, and packaging type. If in week 52 Jumbo size in premium boxes is worth $3/kg and in category 2 it's worth $2 (€1.85), this must be clearly stated. The following year, the grower will want all their fruit to go to premium and will take better care of quality.”
There’s broad consensus on the need to diversify export markets: many fear that China will not be able—or willing—to absorb all future production, at least not at previous prices.
Raimundo Cuevas: “The good news is that China still ‘absorbed’ the 120 million boxes shipped. If 20 million were unfit, they’ll need a new destination.”
Many interviewees praised the efforts of exporters already opening new sales channels.
Jorge Astudillo: Northern cherries, due to specific circumstances, were partly sent to non-traditional markets.
“Russia was quite interesting: a 3J size returned as much as a 4J in Spain. But these are niche, spot sales. One or two pallets are fine—more, and the market saturates. That’s what happened in Spain: in 2023 it took 3–5 pallets; this year it was 30–40, and prices collapsed.”
Jordi Casas: “The US is our second market, but it only accounts for 3–4%. If we sent 10% of what currently goes to China there, we could reach 15%. But what would that do to prices?”
Sebastián Navarro quotes Claudio Vial and Cristián Benavente of Ranco Cherries: reducing China's share to 85% would require quadrupling shipments to other destinations. And increasing Korea-bound containers from 50 to 100 would explode that market. “China, even in crisis, still buys. Other countries might make us dump the fruit,” he warns.
Image 3. From the moment the fruit is picked, every step must be carried out carefully to preserve the quality required by the market.
Marcelo Correa: It's crucial to accept that opening new markets is essential, even if returns will be lower than during China’s golden years. But it will relieve pressure on the main market and help achieve sustainable prices. “Everyone—from exporters to producers—must do their part.”
Walter Masman: Diversification is a massive challenge that takes time. “We know this well, and for large markets it will take even longer.”
Jordi Casas concludes: “Exporters and trading companies will apply their professionalism to develop these markets… but it will take at least five years.”
Text and image source: redagricola.com
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