Climate change is forcing a profound revision of the production strategies of Chilean cherry growing, one of the pillars of the country’s fruit export sector. Milder winters and hotter summers are placing increasing stress on cherry orchards, with a direct impact on volumes, quality and supply continuity, particularly for the Chinese market, the main destination for Chilean cherries.
Chile currently accounts for around 97% of the Southern Hemisphere’s cherry supply, but in recent seasons exports have recorded a decline of around 20%, a clear signal of a system that must rapidly adapt to new climatic conditions.
Among the strategies adopted by the sector, varietal selection stands out. According to Marcelo Arriagada, technical director of the cherry and pome fruit unit at ANA Chile®, focusing on genetics capable of adapting to different soils, climates and chilling availability has become essential to ensure satisfactory yields.
The goal, Arriagada explains, is to produce a cherry aligned with Chinese market preferences without compromising size, firmness and sweetness. Alongside historic varieties such as Lapins, Santina and Regina, which continue to dominate exports, new early selections such as Sweet Aryana, Nimba and Pacific Red are gaining ground. These cultivars aim to diversify export windows and reduce risks linked to extreme climatic events.
The production decline is also evident in the numbers. While seasonal exports previously ranged between 135 and 150 million boxes, current estimates place volumes between 110 and 125 million. The causes are multiple: rainfall during flowering, low temperatures, frosts, hail events and, above all, a lack of winter chilling followed by extremely hot summers.
Luis Ahumada Jurado, general manager of Exportadora Los Olmos, confirms the production contraction but also sees a potential positive effect. With volumes down by 20–25% compared to last season, prices could compensate for the reduced supply. The current season thus becomes a testing ground to understand how the Chinese market will respond to lower volumes but potentially higher quality.
Ahumada also notes that, following last year’s exceptional harvest, many growers applied crop load regulation practices – pruning and thinning – specifically to improve fruit quality, further contributing to the reduction in volumes.
Beyond the field phase, increasing attention is being paid to postharvest, where quality damage may only emerge at destination. In this context, the project presented at IX CherryExpo 2025 by Álvaro Sepúlveda León, researcher at the Pomology Center of the Universidad de Talca, developed together with the Fundación para la Innovación Agraria, is particularly relevant.
The initiative, entitled “Predictive models based on climate, nutrition and management to minimize internal browning losses in cherries and apples,” analysed commercial orchards in the Maule and O’Higgins regions. Through the use of artificial intelligence tools, the team identified correlations that are difficult to detect with traditional models.
The results are clear: winters with greater chilling accumulation reduce the risk of internal browning, while very hot summers and stress conditions significantly increase it. The project will lead to the development of an early warning platform, capable of alerting growers when seasonal conditions are increasing postharvest risk.
Chilean cherry growing is entering a phase of structural transformation. Varietal adaptation, more refined agronomic management and advanced predictive tools will be decisive in maintaining Chile’s global leadership in the cherry sector. In an increasingly unstable climatic context, the ability to anticipate risks and respond to international market demands will be the true key to the future of the supply chain.
Source: agronomia.utalca.cl
Image source: UTALCA
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