The 2026 season for cherries from the U.S. Northwest is entering its final phase with just over 16 million 20-pound boxes (9.07 kg) already shipped. This is a significant result, but still well below the forecasts issued in previous months, while harvest is now winding down in several production areas and supplies continue to decline.
The update comes from Northwest Cherries, the organization representing growers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Utah and Montana. Despite the gradual decline in volumes, the industry emphasizes that cherry flavor, size and quality remain exceptional.
The preliminary figures may raise some questions about the final outcome of the season. Shipments recorded so far are around 3 million boxes below the 19.2 million 20-pound boxes (9.07 kg) forecast by Northwest Cherries in May.
With production now declining and only around half a million boxes expected in August, meeting the targets set at the start of the season could prove difficult.
The May estimate had already been revised downward from the initial projections released in April, when production potential was estimated at between 19.5 and 21.5 million 20-pound boxes (9.07 kg).
The final season figures will therefore show how far actual production ultimately deviated from the initial expectations.
From a production calendar perspective, 2026 is following a pattern very similar to last year and is slightly ahead of the five-year average.
Higher-than-normal temperatures recorded in early spring accelerated crop development, helping the season get underway at the end of May.
The Northwest therefore gained almost a 15-day head start, an advance that was largely maintained throughout the entire season.
This greater earliness inevitably brought forward the final stage of the harvest as well, contributing to the current reduction in market availability.
The performance of Rainier cherries is particularly significant, with the 2026 season ending earlier than usual and with production well below normal levels.
According to Northwest Cherries, the five-year average generally shows volumes beginning to slow after the first week of July. This year, however, the decline became evident as early as the third week of June, around two weeks earlier than the normal seasonal pattern.
The figures reported could represent the last significant volumes of the variety for 2026: the industry recorded shipments of 1.1 million 15-pound boxes (6.80 kg).
The comparison with 2025 highlights the scale of the decline. Last season ended with 2.3 million boxes, meaning that 2026 Rainier volumes are down 52% year on year.
Northwest Cherries attributes this reduction mainly to the impact of weather conditions, particularly damage caused by wind and rain on the 2026 crop.
With another month of summer still ahead, Northwest Cherries is encouraging retailers to make the most of the final weeks of the season, continuing to promote cherries for as long as supplies remain available.
While the curtain appears close to falling on Rainier cherries, dark sweet cherries are still available in sufficient volumes to support promotional activities and could therefore provide the final commercial boost for the Northwest's 2026 season.
The final production figures will show how close the industry came to the forecasts issued in the spring. In the meantime, the market is preparing for a final phase marked by progressively tighter supplies, while quality standards continue to be described by the industry as particularly high.
Source: [www.freshfruitportal.com
Image source: Stefano Lugli
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