The next Australian stone fruit season is set to face a decline in production. For marketing year 2026/27, the cherry crop is forecast to fall by 15%, to 17,000 metric tons, while peach and nectarine production is expected to decrease by 10%.
The outlook is mainly driven by the weather conditions experienced during the Australian winter. Above-average minimum temperatures reduced the number of chill hours accumulated by trees during dormancy, a factor expected to affect bud development and, consequently, the production potential of the new season.
The reduced availability of chill hours could affect bud development, the uniformity of bud burst and fruit set, with particular concern for production areas in Victoria and New South Wales.
The situation has been compounded by above-average winter rainfall, particularly in Victoria. In several areas, soils are close to saturation or already saturated, a condition that could encourage root and vegetative growth at the expense of bud development.
To limit the effects of uneven vegetative growth, growers are expected to increase the use of treatments designed to improve the uniformity of bud burst.
The situation is different in Tasmania, where cherry orchards have benefited from an adequate number of chill hours. For growers on the island, the start of the season therefore looks different from that of other major Australian production regions.
Tasmania is also the region with the latest harvest in the country: picking begins in late December, and a significant share of production is destined for international markets.
The region plays a particularly important role in exports. Together, Victoria and Tasmania account for around 90% of Australian cherry exports.
Another factor to monitor is the weather outlook for the coming months. Australia is experiencing an El Niño pattern, and the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts rainfall well below the median across most cherry, peach and nectarine production regions between September and November 2026.
Drier conditions could provide some benefits by reducing disease pressure and supporting fruit development. At the same time, however, they could further worsen constraints on irrigation water availability, particularly in Victoria.
Prices for tradeable irrigation water are already high and could rise further, adding new costs to orchard management.
The decline in production is also expected to affect international shipments. Fresh cherry exports are forecast at 4,000 metric tons in MY 2026/27, compared with an estimated 4,900 metric tons in MY 2025/26.
The forecast volume for the next season would nevertheless remain broadly in line with the average of the previous five years.
Commercial prospects for peaches and nectarines also point to a slowdown, with exports forecast to decline by 15%.
On the import side, no significant changes are expected. Australia is forecast to remain at around 2,000 metric tons of imported cherries and 600 metric tons of peaches and nectarines, with supplies sourced almost entirely from the United States.
Imported cherries are sold by Australia's two major supermarket chains, while the same does not apply to imported peaches and nectarines.
Prospects for higher imports of the latter are also limited by trends in domestic demand: Australian per capita consumption of peaches and nectarines has declined over the past decade.
Australian cherry production is concentrated mainly in Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia, with smaller production areas also found in Queensland and Western Australia.
Different climatic conditions allow the country to develop a highly diversified harvest calendar. In the warmer northern regions, the first cherries are generally harvested between mid- and late October.
Victoria begins production in November, while Tasmania starts harvesting from late December.
For the 2026/27 season, the Australian sector will therefore have to navigate a delicate balance between reduced chill hours, irrigation water availability, production costs and changing weather conditions.
Tasmania is starting from more favourable conditions, while developments over the coming months will be particularly important for Victoria and New South Wales, as well as for Australia's ability to maintain its volumes in export markets.
Source: freshplaza.com
Image source: Stefano Lugli
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