The Chilean consultant Walter Masman suggests the need to rethink strategies in the early fruit production areas, emphasizing that they could influence the supply from other regions.
Quality and technology must be the alternative to an industry that, according to him, is increasingly resembling another fruit tree in Chile's offerings.
“We are no longer in the sector we once were; as you can see, producers are already starting to worry,” says Walter Masman.
The cherry sector has become more competitive, and despite unions and specialists highlighting the oversupply in China after the record production of 125 million boxes of cherries, it is important to find solutions for a product considered the "golden goose" of national fruit farming.
Figure 1 – Walter Masman
Are there still opportunities for cherries? According to esteemed advisor Walter Masman, yes — but with a clarification: "for the early part."
"There is still a very good window to do excellent business and achieve good profits," says Masman, though he emphasizes that as more players emerge, there will be greater competition in early climate zones — and, of course, the first to enter will be the one to reap the most benefits.
So, what’s the secret to making the most of this trading window? "The use of technology, specifically plastic covers that allow growers to 'modify' the underlying climate."
Figure 2 - Rain shelter system
Early zones are not necessarily located in northern Chile: although the Coquimbo region, particularly Ovalle, has grown significantly over the past decade, microclimates have also emerged, enabling early harvests that compete with the north — such as the regions of Valparaíso, O'Higgins, and even Maule.
"The first Santina cherries to develop in Chile come from the O'Higgins region, in places like Malloa or Pichidegua, where this progress is made possible thanks to climate change," explains Masman, adding that this will generate increasing competition among early zones due to the growth of covering systems, estimated at 2,000 hectares per year.
Figure 3 - Early cherry varieties in the Ovalle area
There are two key factors. One is to generate a change in varietal selection, enabling the proposal of earlier varieties than the current ones.
On the other hand, growers must push for climate modification in such a way that the favorable climate they enjoy allows for even earlier harvests, targeting yields around October 15 or 20 more consistently.
We’ve seen that, both in Ovalle and other early zones, due to the climate effect, late harvests have occurred — especially during cold October months — preventing the early development of varieties like Brooks or even Santina.
I believe that if we want to maintain this advantage linked to climate, it relies on technology use; otherwise, other zones will surpass the Coquimbo region and begin to dominate from an early stage.
Farmers who concentrate production around weeks 45, 46, and 47 are more likely to have a more profitable business. The North, if it slows down, might fall behind. And while it will still be a good business because being there provides an advantage, it may lose ground over time.
I believe so. Now, the grower who is currently ahead will, to some extent, be "forced" to push a bit further forward to leverage the advantages of their climate zone.
Positioning one week earlier in the season will become absolutely crucial from week 47 onward. There’s also a varietal factor to consider — because, obviously, no matter how much you try to push an early harvest of Lapins, you’ll hardly manage it before November 20, when a significant amount of fruit has already been picked.
Figure 4 – Lapins variety
According to Masman, there are opportunities, "provided we move away from the volumes that have flooded China in the weeks leading up to the Chinese New Year, where almost 90% of the cherries produced are destined."
"There is still a lot to do in the early stages, knowing that there are good prices due to the limited supply during this window," he states.
In a year like this one, where we observe significant differences between varieties, sizes, and the genetic potential each variety offers, it is very clear that we must take advantage of zoning.
That is, produce varieties based on what they are. It makes no sense to produce an early variety in a mid-season or late-season location, as it would likely lose any chance of competing with existing varieties.
However, an early variety in an early location has a great advantage due to the low competition it will face. And if this variety has certain characteristics, such as good fertilization and good size, then it immediately starts to stand out from the existing supply.
Likewise, placing a late variety or mid-season variety in an early zone doesn’t work: no matter how much you try to push it forward, it won’t go beyond what the system allows, so it will end up merging into the large volume of the harvest.
Probably the only positive thing is that they produce a good volume. It’s clear. However, the harvest date is similar to what a central zone producer can achieve, likely between November 20 or 22 and November 25, alongside the global volume of Santina.
I don't think they have much chance to compete. The idea of zoning is that if you’re early, you produce early varieties and, hopefully, within a varietal offering that has superior characteristics.
The supply we had, practically closing the season with almost 125 million boxes, with such abundance and so concentrated, now prioritizes high-quality fruit. And there, literally, size is one of the most relevant aspects customers demand.
When we have good-sized fruit, the market changes immediately and drastically. Unfortunately, today we’re overdoing this aspect too, because very large sizes are being demanded from varieties that genetically can't achieve such sizes in great abundance.
Santina is a variety that averages between 28 and 30 mm, and this is the average size of Santina from Chile. It’s very difficult to get a 30 mm Santina or larger, and maybe the producer achieves it, but it's unlikely this will be the average, even reaching productive balance — the volume needed for profitability.
Figure 5 – Larger sizes guarantee higher income/span>
Producing a kilo of cherries costs the grower between $1.5 and $1.75 per kilo (€1.37 - €1.60), which is the production cost.
Today we realize that for some varieties, like Lapins or Regina, the price per kilo is $1 (€0.91), so the expected profit today for some growers is around $1 to $1.5 per kilo (€0.91 - €1.37).
We are starting to notice that we are no longer in the sector we used to be. It’s clear that growers are starting to worry and will have to take measures to ensure fair profitability.
Of course, cherries are just another fruit tree, with some particularities in terms of demand in a large country like China. But for that very reason, they are also forced to dance to the rhythm of the music the Chinese play, especially if 95% of the volume is directed there.
I think so, definitely. The excess fruit is one of many factors, probably even the quality of the fruit itself.
What we’ve seen is that we adhered to this principle. The plant produces healthy, rich, large, and firm fruits.
Now, my guess is that I don't know if we’re following those same parameters from the start. Because if we’re not, that can determine or influence demand in the coming weeks and months.
In the first part, I think fruit is sent with lower Brix levels, smaller sizes, poorer color, to ship it faster.
Text source: Miguel Patino, Redagricola
Images: Redagricola and SL Fruit Service
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