Northwest Cherries: a drop in production is expected due to the mild winter and spring frosts

The 2026 Pacific Northwest cherry season is getting into full swing with an initial production forecast ranging between 19.5 and 21.5 million 20-pound boxes (around 9.07 kg). The estimate was released by Northwest Cherries, the industry’s reference organization, which outlines a promising season that is still evolving after a particularly abundant 2025 crop.

After the record crop, a natural slowdown is expected

The upper end of the estimate, equal to 21.5 million boxes, is around 7% below total production in 2025, when the sector reached 23 million boxes. This is an expected decline, considering the exceptional nature of last season, but it does not reduce expectations for a campaign that still appears significant in terms of volumes and commercial opportunities.

According to the release, the season has been influenced by a mild winter and several periods of spring frost. These factors initially created uncertainty among growers: above-normal temperatures brought crop development forward, while frosts in the Yakima Valley, in Washington State, had raised concerns, according to field sources, about a possible downward revision to as low as 17 million boxes.

An earlier season, but with no signs of compression

Northwest Cherries emphasizes that growers have managed the weather-related challenges with care and expertise, laying the groundwork for a season with positive prospects.

Industry data also indicate that the number of growing degree days between the early and late districts is the highest recorded since 2022. This scenario points to an earlier-than-usual Pacific Northwest crop, but with an even distribution over time and, for now, no particular concerns about supply compression.

The organization also notes that the estimates remain provisional and may be updated as crop development evolves over the coming weeks.

A more coordinated West Coast to manage volumes

One of the most relevant aspects of the 2026 campaign concerns coordination between the Northwest and California. In 2025, Pacific Northwest growers had to deal with strong price pressure: high prices for California cherries overlapped with an abundant and early crop in Washington State, slowing the pace of retailer absorption.

This year, Northwest Cherries and the Golden State industry are working in a more integrated way to prepare the market and support better allocation of all fruit coming from the West Coast.

California was also affected by a warm late winter, which caused the season to start early, around two weeks ahead of last year. Harvest is accelerating rapidly and, although some production areas have experienced compression, isolated rainfall and hailstorms, the overall picture is described as positive.

According to Northwest Cherries, California should be able to maintain promotable volumes through the Memorial Day weekend, coinciding with the start of harvest in the Northwest and the gradual growth of the new season.

A strategic turning point for the US cherry market

The 2026 campaign therefore opens with a delicate balance: on the one hand, production is expected to decline compared with the 2025 record; on the other, there is an earlier calendar and greater collaboration between the main cherry-growing areas of the West Coast. The ability to coordinate harvest, promotions and distribution will be decisive in supporting product value and ensuring a smoother transition between California and the Pacific Northwest.

Source: www.freshfruitportal.com

Image source: Stefano Lugli

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