The Chilean has been living in the Asian giant for around 14 years and has closely witnessed the development of recent seasons. He anticipates a complex season due to the projected cherry volume and China’s current economic situation, but highlights an opportunity: last season’s lower prices made cherries more accessible to consumers who previously could not afford them, which could give new momentum to domestic cherry consumption.
The success of Chilean cherries in China has been a story that has shaped Chilean agriculture, establishing itself not only as one of the country’s main fruit exports but as one of the main exports overall, after copper and salmon. Yet this story has also been accompanied by the strong and sustained growth of China’s economy and a society increasingly willing to spend on luxuries such as Chilean cherries.
Juan Pablo Zapico has been a witness to this boom. The Chilean has lived in the Asian giant for nearly 14 years and, for much of that time, worked as the general manager of SAFCO Asia, overseeing the commercialization of Chilean cherries in China.
During that period, he observed how the markets of the cities considered “tier 1”, in terms of population and purchasing power, grew in markets and competition, while at the same time witnessing the growth toward the inland cities, which began to learn about and consume Chilean cherries.
“Historically, the port of Shanghai has received around 35% of the total export volume of cherries each season, distributing mainly through the Huizhan and Jiaxing markets, with the latter having progressively increased its share, closely competing with Huizhan,” he states.
According to the preliminary itinerary of the Cherry Express for this season, he notes that Shanghai will receive a larger share of the volume compared to previous years. Ten vessels are scheduled for Hong Kong and Shenzhen, 17 for Nansha, 28 for Shanghai, and 4 for Tianjin, ports from which the fruit is distributed to the main markets.
“All these markets are relevant during high-volume seasons, considering the different consumer requirements regarding size and quality, according to the price they are willing to pay. Furthermore, the differences in product knowledge between consumers in primary and secondary cities have decreased significantly compared to previous seasons, reflecting an increasingly informed market, more demanding and transparent in pricing,” he explains in conversation with Redagrícola.
Zapico also highlights that, since March, the port of Shanghai has implemented an automated system for handling cold-treatment cargo, managed by customs. This system reduces human intervention and requires shipping companies to enter information directly into the system. “If temperature deviations are recorded outside the permitted range, cold-treatment days restart, making the process more rigorous and less flexible than in previous seasons,” he illustrates.
Are markets likely to continue growing in China?
“The Guangzhou wholesale market (Jiangnan) has become too small during peak arrival periods, and it is also located within the urban area, making a future relocation likely. Meanwhile, the Huizhan market has recently been under construction with the aim of expanding its capacity. In general, in recent years we have seen increased construction of new markets in secondary cities such as Zhengzhou, Yunnan, Changsha and Wuhan, among others.
In many cases, these projects have proved oversized and have created overlaps in distribution areas, increasing competition in their zones of influence. Previously, each wholesaler usually specialized in a single market. However, the recent trend shows that many have formed sales teams with a presence in multiple markets. This new dynamic has intensified competition and, in scenarios of oversupply, buyers tend to take advantage of the situation, having more options and thus improving their negotiation and bargaining power.
Unlike primary cities, where sellers have multiple placement options and can set fixed or reference prices before distributing fruit to other markets, in secondary cities the distribution logic is different, as they tend to operate as terminal markets, from which fruit is redistributed to nearby tertiary cities and local trade.
In the main urban centers, operators instead tend to adjust their sales strategy based on the areas where product moves faster or to supply markets with lower stock, thus optimizing distribution flow and margins. For this reason, when exporters send fruit directly to importers located in secondary markets and also require them to sell in a specific market, there is a risk of generating temporary oversupply and price distortions.
This situation can cause confusion in the markets, especially when multiple operators end up offering product at the same sales point instead of distributing it according to the real demand of each area.
Juan Pablo Zapico
—Compared to last season, the impression remained that not only was a lot of volume sent to China, but that the quality was not adequate…
“Regarding quality, in my opinion, freshly opened containers did not show significant differences compared to previous years. However, the export volume of cherries increased by around 55%, exceeding the capacity of distributors and logistics and putting pressure on prices. On some days as many as three vessels arrived, which meant part of the fruit accumulated and prices dropped.”
In this context, buyers had many options and strong negotiating power, while sellers lost the control they usually had over the market and prices. Added to this was a large variability among exporters and brands. This market is characterized by the diversity of commercial strategies and practices, generating very different realities in quality, marketing and positioning.
—Does this apply to everyone equally or was there a premium for early fruit?
“Air shipments worked very well and producers are aiming to harvest earlier fruit. Some are trying new varieties, while others are working with Santina under plastic to arrive earlier and obtain a better price. The volume is concentrated between arrival weeks 52 and 3; the main challenge is that after December 31, there are no holidays or events to stimulate consumption until Chinese New Year.”
—The 2025/26 campaign arrives with a later CNY (February 17). How do you anticipate the season?
“For this season, both receivers and distributors and logistics are better prepared, and prices are not expected to drop as sharply as last season. In general, the environment is conservative, although there is moderate optimism that selling prices may be, on average, 10% or more higher than last season. After last season’s experience, which proved pivotal, this season is shaping up to be key to understanding the market’s trend.”
—Will the later timing have an impact?
“With the volumes currently handled by the industry, an early Chinese New Year creates heavy pressure on logistics: volume concentrates and the available selling time is limited. In previous seasons, with 80 million boxes and an early CNY, the negative effect was more moderate; in addition, before the holiday, if a vessel was delayed, prices increased and those who had fruit available could benefit, showing great elasticity.
However, with so much volume arriving every day, this effect no longer occurs and the market behaves in a stable and predictable way. Some believe it is better for Chinese New Year to be late, while others prefer it early. Both options have pros and cons, but in my view it is better for it to be slightly later and not as early as last year.
A too-late date would not be ideal, but it would reduce the amount of fruit left after the holiday, avoiding sharp price drops when there are still 4,000 or 5,000 containers to sell. Additionally, with a later celebration more time is gained to commercialize the volume without accumulating excessive stock. However, in January, during the arrival peaks, there are not many holidays to stimulate consumption, so it is essential to implement strategies that encourage it.”
—Have any lessons been learned regarding this?
“When I was in Chile, I met with some producers and they clearly understand that small sizes do not pay; just look at their settlements and they know it. In the end, with XL and Jumbo they make kilos, but this business right now is not only about kilos; quality is very important and size is an essential part of quality, including condition, whether postharvest issues such as rots or cracking that can turn into rots; quality, color, firmness and size.”
Size is crucial, especially now that we know the market will be under pressure from volumes. For this reason, it will be essential to have sizes with as little Jumbo as possible. It’s not that producers are penalized, but that consumers will always prefer the fillet, not just any cut. Producers know which sizes they need to work on and therefore must adjust the crop load to obtain large sizes, not only produce kilos but cherries of adequate size for the market and thus achieve a better result.”
—What impact have early varieties and the new genetics had on the market, and how have they been received in China?
“On one hand, I believe there is a certain degree of confusion due to the emergence of many new varieties, and on the other, none has managed to satisfy the market as much as Santina. I consulted widely, especially regarding air shipments, and no Chinese buyer has told me that any new variety is better than Santina.
They have not even mentioned Santina under plastic, which can be softer. Sweet Aryana may have lots that reach similar prices to Santina, but it does not surpass it. This does not mean they are not interested in new varieties; perhaps they have potential, but they still need to be produced properly.”
So far, Nimba has fallen behind, and some even mention it is following in Frisco’s footsteps. There is a learning process: Santina is already well understood, it has been on the market for many years, and producers know well how to manage crop load, fertilization and fruit in general. It also does not pay royalties and can be harvested earlier under plastic. In contrast, new varieties require producers to learn how to manage them, and this process is still ongoing.”
The new markets in China.
Greater caution from Chinese consumers
The next Chinese New Year, falling in mid-February, will be represented by the Fire Horse, and according to Eastern cosmology, this new year is associated with the energy of passion, independence and transformation, and is considered a period of deep changes and important decisions, something that can certainly be reflected in a crucial season for the cherry campaign, which has already begun, with the Cherry Committee preliminarily estimating shipments of 131 million boxes for the season.
—How do you view the Chinese economy for this season? Is a slowdown in consumption being perceived?
“One thing is the indicators one sees, and another is the reality one lives. Sometimes it is difficult to get a complete perception, because the people I interact with see one thing, but perhaps people on the other side of the street would tell me the opposite. And indicators here are very easy to manipulate. But if there is something that has surprised me, it is unemployment. The main cherry consumer in China is between 25 and 40 years old, young graduates, employed and independent, earning money, buying cherries because it is trendy and seeking new experiences.”
But currently there is a lot of unemployment among people who graduate from university and cannot find work. There is already talk of 15% to 20% within this segment, which is a lot of people. So there are Chinese who finish university and do not have a job, people between 23 and 28 years old, and I think this is an indicator of the situation.
In any case, in China there are consumers for everything, such as luxury segments, but I think that in general, rather than being limited, they are more aware of managing money conservatively, not spending impulsively because there are economic situations that make them anticipate risks. Overall, they are more controlled in their expenses.”
—Will this economic moment impact the cherry campaign?
“I have lived in China for more than 13 years and it is difficult to make projections, because this country can always surprise, for better or for worse. Today the consumer is more rational and less impulsive, especially regarding a product that is no longer a major novelty. This could affect the price range, particularly the higher ones.
However, Chinese consumers maintain a strong habit of fruit consumption, which they associate with health and well-being, and therefore fruit will sell; the key point will be at what price. In this context, campaigns that promote regular cherry consumption and reinforce repeat purchases will be essential to support demand.”
—China has already experienced significant slowdowns, but through reforms or stimulus has maintained consumption; how does this look from there?
“In the specific case of cherries, in the 2023/24 season people were talking about a weakened economy and the impact of the Evergrande collapse, the Chinese real-estate giant that was expected to drag the country down. However, it turned out to be one of the historic seasons with high prices. Fruit of normal quality, even with some pitting and other issues, and with a volume close to 80 million boxes, sold without major difficulty and almost no one complained about the quality.”
However, in a scenario of greater supply, those same details begin to gain relevance: quality demands increase and the economic situation becomes a more decisive factor in market behavior.”
—Has Chilean cherry reached its ceiling in China?
“It cannot be said that cherries have reached a ‘ceiling’ in China. Consumption has not grown at the same pace as volume, which led to a major price adjustment last season. In my opinion, this will largely depend on how consumption is incentivized, given that volume is currently available.”
For this reason, efforts should focus on stimulating demand, which becomes the key factor to work on. Frutas de Chile, together with the Cherry Committee, is developing strategies to stimulate demand during the four peak arrival weeks (weeks 52, 1, 2 and 3), which concentrate 65% of the volume.
These weeks are particularly critical, as they do not coincide with holidays or major promotions, making it even more necessary to actively promote consumption. In addition, promotions will be implemented in inland cities (tier 1, 2, 3 and 4) to encourage the purchase of Chilean cherries.
Last season’s lower prices made cherries more accessible to consumers who previously could not buy them, exposing the fruit to a larger number of buyers. This could have a positive effect this season, as these new consumers may continue purchasing.
Image source: Redagrícola
Miguel Patiño
Redagrícola
19 Sep 2023
The PGI project includes numerous cultivars, including as many as 14 native varieties registered and protected by the Regional Germplasm Bank considered to be at risk of extinction, and are also included in the Cesto Pisano list of food and wine products of excellence.
31 Jul 2025
The Pacific Northwest cherry season is threatened by a severe labor shortage. Fears of deportations and the lack of pickers risk compromising the harvest, especially affecting small growers in Washington, Oregon, and California during a crucial period.
27 Nov 2025
A Ukrainian research team studied nine sour cherry varieties to develop predictive models based on size, weight, color, and firmness. The goal is to optimize post-harvest technologies and improve product quality during fruit and vegetable processing.
27 Nov 2025
China expects 131 million boxes of Chilean cherries in 2025/26. Rising volumes, tighter logistics and more cautious consumers present new challenges. A full analysis of market trends, quality expectations and pricing strategies for the upcoming season.
