The global cherry industry is preparing for an unprecedented season for cherries.
For 2026/27, the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) forecasts production of 5.4 million tonnes, up 17% from the previous season.
This expansion could intensify competition for cherries from Argentine Patagonia, which reach the market during the same commercial window as Chilean fruit.
The estimates come from the stone fruit report released on September 25. China, Türkiye, the European Union and Chile are the main drivers behind the new production record.
China remains the leading producer, with 1.02 million tonnes.
Türkiye, following a season severely affected by frost, is expected to reach 1 million tonnes: almost two and a half times the volume harvested in 2025/26.
In the Southern Hemisphere, Chile confirms its importance in the international industry, with production forecast at 727,000 tonnes.
The increase in supply is also expected to affect trade flows. According to the USDA, global fresh cherry trade will grow by more than 15%, exceeding 900,000 tonnes.
The main contribution will come from Chile, whose exports are estimated at 650,000 tonnes, or 80,000 tonnes more than in the previous season.
On the demand side, China is expected to import 560,000 tonnes, an increase of 12% supported by higher arrivals from Chile. Türkiye is also expected to regain a more significant role in exports, rising from just 6,000 to 70,000 tonnes.
The US outlook is moving in the opposite direction. Frost has affected both sweet and sour cherries, and total production is expected to fall by more than 20%, to 317,000 tonnes.
For sweet cherries alone, the forecast loss is approximately 60,000 tonnes. A warm spring has further complicated the season, altering harvest timing in California and Washington.
US exports are expected to fall by almost 25%, to 62,000 tonnes. Shipments had already declined by 32% in June and July.
Argentina is not among the main players analysed in the USDA report. Nevertheless, shifting international dynamics directly affect its cherry industry, particularly in Patagonia.
The source text refers to the 2024/25 season as a benchmark, in light of the weather events that affected the Middle Valley of the Río Negro the previous year.
That season, Argentine production was estimated at approximately 8,600 tonnes, while exports exceeded 8,000 tonnes, reaching an all-time record.
The key issue is the overlapping commercial window with Chile: both countries produce counter-seasonally to the Northern Hemisphere and reach international markets between November and February.
The additional 80,000 tonnes forecast for Chilean exports, largely expected to be absorbed by China, therefore point to a more competitive season for Argentine cherries, which will face growing supply targeting the same buyers.
In the Northern Hemisphere, meanwhile, the Turkish recovery and the US decline are reshaping product availability in June and July.
The report also forecasts expansion for peaches and nectarines. Global production is expected to increase by 5%, reaching 25 million tonnes.
China is expected to retain a substantial lead, with 17.3 million tonnes, while Türkiye is forecast to almost double its harvest, reaching 1.2 million tonnes. International trade is expected to grow by 10%, to 1 million tonnes.
For Patagonian cherries, the outlook remains one of a season in which greater Chinese demand will have to keep pace with expanding Chilean supply. How this relationship develops will be central to trade dynamics during the Southern Hemisphere season.
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