Sharp recovery in Turkey, combined with record outputs in China and Chile, expected to drive global production to ‘all-time high’
Global fresh cherry production is forecast to rise 17 per cent to a record 5.4mn tonnes in 2026/27, driven by larger crops in China, Turkey, the EU, and Chile, according to the latest outlook from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The report, prepared by its Foreign Agricultural Service, said record crops were expected in three of the four largest cherry producing countries, namely China, Turkey, and Chile.
Turkey is expected to see a sharp recovery, with production set to rise almost 250 per cent on last season’s frost-hit volume to a record 1mn tonnes.
Production in the country fell to 289,000 tonnes in 2025/26, according to USDA data.
China, meanwhile, is projected to increase its output from 950,000 tonnes to 1.02mn tonnes – also a national record – while in Chile production is forecast to climb from 631,000 tonnes to 727,000 tonnes.
Production across the EU is predicted to rise from 786,000 tonnes to 800,000 tonnes.
The gains are expected to more than offset a smaller US crop, with production there forecast to decline from 401,000 tonnes to 317,000 tonnes following freeze damage.
As a whole, the volume of fresh cherries traded globally is forecast to increase by more than 15 per cent to around 900,000 tonnes, as more export-grade fruit comes online in Chile and Turkey.
China’s imports, a major factor in the international cherry market, are set to rise 12 per cent to 560,000 tonnes, the report noted, just above a previous record set in 2024/25, with Chile expected to drive that increase.
Russian and EU imports are also expected to recover as Turkey’s crop recovers.
Chile is forecast to increase exports by 80,000 tonnes to 650,000 tonnes, supported by its larger crop and continued market diversification. Turkey’s exports are projected to jump from 6,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes.
However, the USDA said competition in Europe and relatively strong domestic prices were expected to mean Turkey’s shipments will stay below the 84,000 tonnes it exported in 2023/24.
Image source: Stefano Lugli
Mike Knowles
Fruitnet
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