According to a Rabobank report published in May 2026, the global fresh cherry sector has entered a transition phase after nearly 20 years of uninterrupted growth.
Although Chinese consumers remain the main driver of global cherry consumption, buyers have become more selective in terms of price, fruit quality and timing. Importers are showing similar behaviour, the financial institution noted, as buyers are no longer willing to pay premium prices for all volumes. “Premium segments still exist, but they are limited to fruit of the highest quality, larger sizes and timely deliveries,” the document states.
In addition, Chile, the world’s leading cherry exporter, has moved away from the rapid expansion of planted areas, focusing instead on improving orchard efficiency, varietal renewal and strengthening logistics. “Production and exports are expected to continue growing in the short term, as new orchards enter the productive phase,” the assessment states.
“However, growth will be concentrated in the early and mid-season windows, driven mainly by the Santina and Lapins varieties.” Chilean growers are increasingly favouring firmer and sweeter varieties, while exporters are working to avoid the port congestion and delays that affected shipments to China in previous seasons. According to the report, the Andean country continues to export around 85-90% of its cherries to the Asian giant, but the sector has renewed its efforts to diversify sales towards the United States, Brazil and Southeast Asia in order to reduce dependence on a single market.
Northern Hemisphere producers, including those in the United States, Turkey and Spain, continue to emphasise freshness and shorter transport times as competitive advantages during the summer marketing window. “US imports remained stable for the third consecutive year, although their composition changed significantly compared with 2024,” the report states.
The report identified labour shortages and limited cooling capacity in packing facilities as the main operational constraints for Northern Hemisphere producers, despite high production levels.
The report also highlighted what it described as the sector’s “scale dilemma”, in which the expansion of planted areas can put pressure on margins as global supply increases. According to the assessment, profitability increasingly depends on marketing strategy, integration with retail networks and fruit product positioning, rather than production volume alone.
Climate volatility also continues to influence investment priorities. The report pointed to recent crop losses in California and parts of Europe caused by unpredictable weather conditions, which have increased interest in protective infrastructure such as nets and plastic rain covers, as well as in the development of low-chill varieties. “Frosts in Poland, Greece, Bulgaria and Italy led to the lowest production in the European Union since 2013,” the report states.
The report forecasts further consolidation in the cherry sector, as small producers face growing capital requirements linked to modern orchard systems, climate protection and post-harvest technologies.
The report also predicted broader adoption of AI-based optical sorting systems and controlled-atmosphere shipping technologies, designed to extend shelf life and improve fruit quality for export markets, particularly China.
Image source: Stefano Lugli
Carla Espinoza Gutiérrez
FreshFruitPortal
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