The US dark sweet cherry market faces a smaller crop in 2026, as unfavorable weather conditions across key growing regions limit production and create challenges for fruit quality. Following an already difficult 2025 season, national sweet cherry production is expected to decline further, with lower output in Washington, Oregon and Michigan only partially offset by California’s recovery.
According to the June 2026 Crop Production report from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), US sweet cherry production is forecast at 310,500 tons in 2026, down 16.9% from 373,850 tons in 2025. The decline reflects lower output across major growing regions, particularly Washington and Oregon, while California’s recovery provides only partial relief.
Washington State production is estimated at 200,000 tons, compared with 261,000 tons in 2025. For California, meanwhile, USDA NASS forecasts an increase to 63,000 tons, up from 50,700 tons the previous year. The USDA’s Economic Research Service also reported in September 2026 that California sweet cherry production was projected to rise 24% year over year, helping to ease the supply contraction at the regional level. Production is also expected to decline in Oregon, from 49,700 to 38,000 tons.
The smaller national crop points to tighter supply for the remainder of the 2026 marketing season. Although lower production may put upward pressure on prices, the extent of any increases will depend on demand, existing supplies and supplier-specific market conditions.
Photo: Stefano Lugli
Source: Mintec
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Although lower production may put upward pressure on prices, the extent of any increases will depend on demand, existing supplies and supplier-specific market conditions.
