This analysis is divided into two parts. First, we look at what is happening today in the Northern Hemisphere. Then, we examine how the situation looks during the opposite season in the Southern Hemisphere.
Today, the Northern Hemisphere no longer competes in terms of volume. It competes on timing, territoriality and consistency of supply. And this is beginning to define a new market standard.
Northern Hemisphere calendar (operational reference)
| Country | Start | Peak | End | Estimated production (000 t) | Main destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA - California | April | May | June | 80-100 | Domestic / Asia |
| USA - Washington | June | July | August | 250-300 | Asia / Domestic |
| Spain | April | May | June | 90-110 | Europe |
| Italy | May | June | July | 100-120 | Europe / Middle East |
| Turkey | May | June and July | August | 700-900 | Europe / Asia |
| China | April | May | June | 800-900 | Domestic |
| Country | Destination | Transit time | Type of transit | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | Domestic | 1-3 days | By land | Low |
| Europe | Domestic | 1-3 days | By land | Low |
| Turkey | Asia | 5-10 days | By air By sea | Medium |
| China | Domestic | 0-2 days | By land | Low |
This context creates a structural difference:
China is no longer the same market it was a few years ago. Today, China produces between 800,000 and 900,000 tonnes of cherries, which are rapidly improving in terms of quality and post-harvest management, supplying a large share of its domestic consumption.
Key insight: China is educating itself, and it is happening quickly. Previously, imported cherries were considered top quality and their price was determined by their origin. Today, consumers compare standards and, if the price rises, they adjust accordingly. The concept of premium is becoming diluted.
| Factor | Before | Today |
|---|---|---|
| Availability | Seasonal | Extended |
| Perception | Premium | Comparison |
| Price | High | Moderate |
| Decision | Origin | Condition |
The Northern Hemisphere does not win in terms of volume.
It wins because:
Meanwhile, the Southern Hemisphere depends on flawless execution:
Today, the market does not reward origin. It is paying for experience. And that experience accumulates along the entire chain. The next step is to apply this analysis to the reality of Chile, Peru and Argentina. That is where execution determines who wins.
Gustavo Castro
Sol de Cata - Operations and strategy in the fresh fruit sector
10 Dec 2024
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